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Kinetiq Political Insights Projects $10.4 Billion in 2026 Midterm Political Ad Spend, Signaling the Most Expensive Non-Presidential Cycle in U.S. History

New forecast highlights unprecedented competition, concentrated market spend, and continued rise of CTV

Kinetiq Political Insights (KPI), a joint offering from National Media Insights and Kinetiq, last week released its 2026 Political Media Forecast, projecting $10.4 billion in total political advertising spend across broadcast television, connected TV (CTV), digital, cable, and radio. The timing of this forecast reflects a shift in the underlying dynamics of the 2026 cycle. Traditional midterm signals are not holding.

Historically, periods of political headwinds have led to softer fundraising and reduced advertising spend. This year, those signals are not aligning. Fundraising remains strong and projected ad spend continues to rise, pointing to a more competitive and less predictable midterm environment.

Candidate fundraising is already running 9.4% ahead of the 2022 midterm cycle at this point in the cycle, reinforcing the strength of early-cycle signals.

In response to this shift, KPI developed a new approach to forecasting political media spend, combining fundraising strength, market-level media costs, and historical and macro cycle dynamics to project where political ad dollars will actually flow. The forecast positions the 2026 midterms as the most expensive non-presidential election cycle in U.S. history, coming in just 8% below the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle and 16% above the 2022 midterms.

The report highlights a sharp concentration of spending across key battleground states, with the top five states projected to account for approximately 32% of total political ad spend. Among them, Michigan stands out as a defining example of the cycle’s intensity, projected to exceed $1 billion in political media spend — up from just $67 million in 2022.

Connected TV continues its rapid ascent, with KPI projecting the channel will surpass 25% of total political ad spend for the first time, more than doubling its share since 2022. Broadcast television remains the largest single channel, underscoring the continued importance of scale and reach in compressed campaign windows.

“This is not a typical midterm cycle,” said Michael O’Brien, CEO of National Media Research, Planning and Placement. “What we’re seeing is a breakdown of the traditional signals that have historically defined midterms. When fundraising stays strong despite expected headwinds, it changes how campaigns plan, how media is bought, and where competition intensifies. In a cycle like this, having a clear view of where dollars will flow is critical.”

KPI’s forecast is built on a multi-signal methodology that provides a more complete view of both total spend and how that spend will be distributed across markets and channels.

As competition intensifies, real-time visibility into campaign activity is becoming increasingly important for political advertisers and media stakeholders. Kinetiq’s platform powers KPI with global ad detection, creative monitoring, and real-time intelligence across linear and digital channels.

“In a cycle where competition is this concentrated and dynamic, speed and visibility matter,” said Kevin Kohn, CEO of Kinetiq. “Kinetiq’s ability to detect ads, track creative, and surface insights in real time gives campaigns and agencies a critical edge. This report is an important step in establishing KPI as a leading source of truth for political media intelligence.”

The KPI 2026 Political Media Forecast provides a comprehensive view of the forces shaping the election cycle, including channel-level shifts, market-by-market projections, fundraising trends, and key risk scenarios that could impact total spend.

The full report is available for download here.

For more information on Kinetiq Political Insights, visit